NZ election 2026 polls
The latest opinion polls, their average, and what that average would mean for seats in Parliament under MMP.
Poll average
| Party | Average | 2023 result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 28.1% | 38.1% | −10.0 |
| Labour | 27.9% | 26.9% | +1.0 |
| Green | 14.7% | 11.6% | +3.0 |
| NZ First | 10.6% | 6.1% | +4.5 |
| ACT | 10.1% | 8.6% | +1.5 |
| Opportunity | 5.9% | 2.2% | +3.7 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1.6% | 3.1% | −1.5 |
Which polls are in the average?
The latest poll from each of 6 pollsters, with fieldwork ending between 28 September 2026 and 27 October 2026:
- RNZ–Reid Research: 20–26 Oct 2026
- 1 News–Verian: 21–25 Oct 2026
- The Post/Freshwater Strategy: 9–19 Oct 2026
- Anacta: 6–10 Oct 2026
- Taxpayers' Union–Curia: 1–5 Oct 2026
- Roy Morgan: 31 Aug – 27 Sep 2026
Seats on the poll average
| Party | Electorate | List | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 38 | 0 | 38 |
| Labour | 22 | 11 | 33 |
| Green | 3 | 15 | 18 |
| NZ First | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| ACT | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| Opportunity | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Te Tai Tokerau Party | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| House | 127 |
A majority needs 64 of 127 seats (the House is larger than 120 because of 7 overhang seats). National, ACT and NZ First together would have 63; Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori 55; Opportunity 7.
How this works: the party vote is the poll average; electorates are filled in by the calculator's default settings (each seat's 2023 margin moved by three-quarters of the change in the party vote, with Māori seats, very safe seats and seats held by smaller parties kept with their 2023 party). It's an illustration of what the polls imply under MMP, not a forecast.
Latest polls
| Fieldwork | Pollster | National | Labour | Green | ACT | NZ First | Te Pāti Māori | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–26 Oct 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 24.8 | 30.6 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 7.2 |
| 21–25 Oct 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 28.9 | 27.3 | 14.8 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 0.1 | 6.3 |
| 15–19 Oct 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 32.0 | 27.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 |
| 9–19 Oct 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 27.6 | 28.7 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 2.0 | 5.4 |
| 8–12 Oct 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 28.0 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 8.0 |
| 6–10 Oct 2026 | Anacta | 28.0 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 1.9 | 5.4 |
| 1–5 Oct 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 28.5 | 28.2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 1.4 | 4.8 |
| 1–5 Oct 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 29.0 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 7.0 |
| 24 Sep – 1 Oct 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 25.9 | 30.8 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 2.0 | 5.5 |
| 23–27 Sep 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 28.0 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 6.0 |
| 31 Aug – 27 Sep 2026 | Roy Morgan | 31.0 | 23.5 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 |
| 4–11 Sep 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 26.5 | 28.0 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| 4–10 Sep 2026 | Anacta | 30.0 | 31.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 |
| 1–3 Sep 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 29.0 | 25.9 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| 27 Jul – 23 Aug 2026 | Roy Morgan | 31.0 | 24.0 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 |
| 14–21 Aug 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 29.1 | 32.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 5.3 |
| 8–11 Aug 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 29.0 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 8.0 |
| 1–11 Aug 2026 | Talbot Mills | 29.0 | 34.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.2 |
| 1–4 Aug 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 31.0 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| 29 Jun – 26 Jul 2026 | Roy Morgan | 32.0 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 |
Figures as published by each pollster (percent of decided voters), collected from Wikipedia's list of 2026 opinion polls. Polls have margins of error of around ±3 points for the larger parties.