Electorates › West Coast-Tasman
West Coast-Tasman
General electorate · Marginal · 2.4 pts in 2023
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Maureen Pugh (National) won West Coast-Tasman by 1,017 votes over Damien O'Connor (Labour). The candidate vote split National 32.0% to Labour 29.6%, a margin of 2.4 points.
The 2023 winner, Maureen Pugh, is not standing in 2026, so this is an open seat.
On the party vote, National led with 33.5%, ahead of Labour on 23.8%.
What it would take to change hands
Labour would need a swing of about 1.2 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would take the seat by about 5.8 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
West Coast-Tasman candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Charles Beaumont | Green Party | #37 |
| Jamie Cleine | New Zealand First Party | #14 |
| Sara Dyatlova-Murphy | Alliance Party | #4 |
| Sue Grey | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party | #1 |
| Alexander Hislop | New Zealand Loyal | #4 |
| Janelle Hocking | ACT New Zealand | #15 |
| Katie Milne | National Party | #24 |
| Richard Francis Osmaston | Money Free Party NZ | – |
| Rory William Paterson | Labour Party | #53 |
| Kevin Rooke | Progressive Party of Aotearoa New Zealand | – |
| Cindie Uddstrom | Opportunity Party | – |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.