Wellington North

The 2023 result

In 2023, Tamatha Paul (Green) won Wellington Central by 6,066 votes over Ibrahim Omer (Labour). The seat was called Wellington Central before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split Green 40.8% to Labour 27.4%, a margin of 13.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Tamatha Paul, is standing again.

On the party vote, Green led with 37.8%, ahead of Labour on 24.9%.

Worth knowing: Notional flip Green→Labour (electorate vote) by 0.5%; Greens won the party vote here.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 0.5 points ahead of Green (an estimate by The Tally Room). Green would need a swing of about 0.3 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has Green up 3.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Green would take the seat by about 1.1 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.