Electorates › Whanganui
Whanganui
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 15.3 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Carl Bates (National) won Whanganui by 5,512 votes over Steph Lewis (Labour). The candidate vote split National 47.7% to Labour 33.5%, a margin of 14.2 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Carl Bates, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 37.0%, ahead of Labour on 28.0%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 15.3 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 7.7 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 7.1 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Whanganui candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Carl Bates Won here in 2023 MP for Whanganui | National Party | #28 |
| Juan Charles Coffey | Balance New Zealand | – |
| Harete Hipango-Brownlie | New Zealand First Party | #7 |
| Sandra Kyle | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand | #4 |
| Angela Roberts 2nd in Taranaki-King Country in 2023 | Labour Party | #45 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.