Waitākere

The 2023 result

In 2023, Paulo Garcia (National) won New Lynn by 1,013 votes over Deborah Russell (Labour). The seat was called New Lynn before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split National 39.9% to Labour 37.4%, a margin of 2.5 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Paulo Garcia, is not standing in 2026, so this is an open seat.

On the party vote, National led with 37.3%, ahead of Labour on 26.9%.

Worth knowing: Notional flip National→Labour on redrawn boundaries; notional margin 0.9%.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 0.9 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 0.5 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 9.1 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.