Electorates › Wairarapa
Wairarapa
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Fairly safe · 6.6 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
Election day. While voting is open (until 7pm), this page shows only who's standing. Past results and everything else return when polls close at 7pm. Find your nearest voting place
The 2023 result
In 2023, Mike Butterick (National) won Wairarapa by 2,816 votes over Kieran McAnulty (Labour). The candidate vote split National 46.1% to Labour 39.7%, a margin of 6.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Mike Butterick, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 38.9%, ahead of Labour on 27.4%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 6.6 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 3.3 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would take the seat by about 1.6 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Wairarapa candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Victoria Ale | Alliance Party | #6 |
| Mike Butterick Won here in 2023 MP for Wairarapa | National Party | #20 |
| Lauren Craig | Green Party | #23 |
| Jared Warren Gardner | Te Pāti Hira | – |
| Ron Mark | New Zealand First Party | #16 |
| Kieran McAnulty 2nd here in 2023 List MP | Labour Party | #10 |
| Matt Shepherd | Opportunity Party | #24 |
| Barry Young | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party | #3 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.