Electorates › Waimakariri
Waimakariri
General electorate · Safe · 28.3 pts in 2023
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Matt Doocey (National) won Waimakariri by 13,010 votes over Dan Rosewarne (Labour). The candidate vote split National 58.3% to Labour 30.0%, a margin of 28.3 points.
The 2023 winner, Matt Doocey, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 42.7%, ahead of Labour on 24.2%.
What it would take to change hands
Labour would need a swing of about 14.2 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 20.1 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Waimakariri candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley Bettridge | ACT New Zealand | #30 |
| Matt Doocey Won here in 2023 MP for Waimakariri | National Party | #12 |
| Jackie Farrelly | New Zealand First Party | #44 |
| Dan Rosewarne 2nd here in 2023 List MP | Labour Party | #35 |
| Richard Wesley | Green Party | #54 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.