Electorates › Waikato
Waikato
General electorate · Safe · 44.3 pts in 2023
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Tim van de Molen (National) won Waikato by 18,548 votes over Jamie Toko (Labour). The candidate vote split National 65.5% to Labour 21.2%, a margin of 44.3 points.
The 2023 winner, Tim van de Molen, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 50.4%, ahead of Labour on 17.6%.
What it would take to change hands
Labour would need a swing of about 22.2 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 36.1 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Waikato candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Robert John Cookson | New Zealand First Party | #23 |
| Ash Parmar | ACT New Zealand | #16 |
| Turi Te Kamonga Robinson | Independent | – |
| Jamie Toko 2nd here in 2023 | Labour Party | – |
| Tim van de Molen Won here in 2023 MP for Waikato | National Party | #48 |
| Brendan Richard Whyte | Independent | – |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.