Electorates › Taieri
Taieri
General electorate · Marginal · 3.5 pts in 2023
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Ingrid Leary (Labour) won Taieri by 1,443 votes over Matthew French (National). The candidate vote split Labour 39.9% to National 36.4%, a margin of 3.5 points.
The 2023 winner, Ingrid Leary, is standing again.
On the party vote, Labour led with 34.3%, ahead of National on 33.6%.
What it would take to change hands
National would need a swing of about 1.8 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 11.7 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Taieri candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Byars | ACT New Zealand | #32 |
| Matthew French 2nd here in 2023 | National Party | #53 |
| Anna Knight | Alliance Party | #2 |
| Ingrid Leary Won here in 2023 MP for Taieri | Labour Party | #38 |
| Mark Patterson List MP | New Zealand First Party | #4 |
| Scott Willis List MP | Green Party | #15 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.