Electorates › Southland
Southland
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 43.5 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Joseph Mooney (National) won Southland by 17,211 votes over Simon McCALLUM (Labour). The candidate vote split National 59.6% to Labour 15.4%, a margin of 44.1 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Joseph Mooney, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 48.4%, ahead of Labour on 16.5%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 43.5 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 21.8 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 35.3 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Southland candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Bianca Beebe | Opportunity Party | #11 |
| Jason Herrick | New Zealand First Party | #17 |
| Naomi Maclean | Vision New Zealand | #5 |
| Peter McDonald | Labour Party | #57 |
| Joseph Mooney Won here in 2023 MP for Southland | National Party | #49 |
| Todd Stephenson List MP | ACT New Zealand | #6 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.