Electorates › Selwyn
Selwyn
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 42.0 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Nicola Grigg (National) won Selwyn by 19,782 votes over Luke Jones (Labour). The candidate vote split National 66.2% to Labour 24.6%, a margin of 41.6 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Nicola Grigg, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 49.4%, ahead of Labour on 18.2%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 42.0 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 21.0 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 33.8 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Selwyn candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Alma de Anda | Green Party | #33 |
| Sunita Gautam | Labour Party | – |
| Nicola Grigg Won here in 2023 MP for Selwyn | National Party | #16 |
| Jesse Luke | Alliance Party | #10 |
| Adrian Mee | Opportunity Party | #38 |
| Elizabeth Mundt | New Zealand First Party | #46 |
| Iain Murray | ACT New Zealand | #11 |
| Zoran Rakovic | Independent | – |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.