Electorates › Port Waikato
Port Waikato
General electorate · Safe · 30.3 pts on the 2023 party vote
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The 2023 result
The 2023 general-election vote here was cancelled after a candidate died, so the seat was decided at a by-election on 25 November 2023. Andrew Bayly (National) won with 76.6%, by 11,432 votes over Casey Costello (NZ First, 15.4%). Labour didn't stand.
Andrew Bayly isn't standing here in 2026, so this is an open seat.
At the general election, on the party vote, National led with 49.0%, ahead of Labour on 18.7%.
What it would take to change hands
The by-election isn't a fair guide here because Labour didn't stand, so this uses the 2023 party vote, where National was 30.3 points ahead of Labour. Labour would need a swing of about 15.1 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 22.1 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Port Waikato candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Brachi | Labour Party | – |
| Casey Costello 2nd in the 2023 by-election List MP | New Zealand First Party | #3 |
| Sarah Lochead-Macmillan | ACT New Zealand | #43 |
| Carl Morgan | Green Party | #28 |
| Matthew Paul | National Party | #61 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.