Electorates › Papakura
Papakura
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 30.4 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Judith Collins (National) won Papakura by 13,519 votes over Anahila Kanongata'a (Labour). The candidate vote split National 58.7% to Labour 25.8%, a margin of 32.9 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Judith Collins, is not standing in 2026, so this is an open seat.
On the party vote, National led with 52.0%, ahead of Labour on 21.0%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 30.4 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 15.2 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 22.2 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Papakura candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Emma May Chatterton 2nd in Remutaka in 2023 | National Party | #51 |
| Angela Dalton | Green Party | #26 |
| Anahila Kanongata'a 2nd here in 2023 | Labour Party | #47 |
| Malkiat Singh | ACT New Zealand | #29 |
| Hannah Tamaki | Vision New Zealand | #1 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.