Electorates › Northland
Northland
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 12.4 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Grant Lewis McCallum (National) won Northland by 6,087 votes over Willow-Jean Prime (Labour). The candidate vote split National 35.9% to Labour 22.5%, a margin of 13.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Grant Lewis McCallum, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 35.4%, ahead of Labour on 22.0%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 12.4 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 6.2 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 4.2 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Northland candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Cameron List MP | ACT New Zealand | – |
| Mike Finlayson | Green Party | #48 |
| Shane Jones List MP | New Zealand First Party | #2 |
| Ashleigh Latimer | Labour Party | #54 |
| Jeffrey Lye | Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party | #3 |
| Douglas Robert Lyell | Conservative Party NZ | #4 |
| Grant Lewis McCallum Won here in 2023 Sitting MP | National Party | #34 |
| Richard McIntosh | Independent | – |
| Pete Verhoeven | New Zealand Loyal | #10 |
| Alistair Wait | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party | #5 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.