Northcote

General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 23.7 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)

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The 2023 result

In 2023, Dan Bidois (National) won Northcote by 9,270 votes over Shanan Halbert (Labour). The candidate vote split National 54.9% to Labour 30.5%, a margin of 24.5 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Dan Bidois, is standing again.

On the party vote, National led with 43.7%, ahead of Labour on 23.2%.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 23.7 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 11.9 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 15.5 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.

Northcote candidates 2026

Candidate	Party	List
Dan Bidois Won here in 2023 MP for Northcote	National Party	#30
Lily Carrington	Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand	#3
Marie Drury	Conservative Party NZ	#5
Barak Ford	New Zealand Loyal	#16
Bhen Goodsir	Green Party	#17
Daryl Habraken	New Zealand First Party	#29
Shanan Halbert 2nd here in 2023 List MP	Labour Party	#19
Martin Lundqvist	ACT New Zealand	#42
Cody Marsh	Opportunity Party	#17

"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.

Pick a winner for Northcote in the calculator