Electorates › North Shore
North Shore
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 40.3 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Simon Watts (National) won North Shore by 16,330 votes over George Hampton (Labour). The candidate vote split National 61.6% to Labour 21.2%, a margin of 40.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Simon Watts, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 50.9%, ahead of Labour on 17.7%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 40.3 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 20.2 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 32.1 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
North Shore candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Chhour List MP | ACT New Zealand | #5 |
| Sam Collins | Labour Party | #62 |
| Josh Jacobsen | Green Party | #25 |
| Holly Knill | Opportunity Party | #9 |
| Simon Watts Won here in 2023 MP for North Shore | National Party | #13 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.