Electorates › Nelson
Nelson
General electorate · Knife-edge · 0.1 pts in 2023
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Rachel Boyack (Labour) won Nelson by 26 votes over Blair Cameron (National). The candidate vote split Labour 41.7% to National 41.7%, a margin of 0.1 points.
The 2023 winner, Rachel Boyack, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 32.5%, ahead of Labour on 29.3%. That's a split: voters gave the seat to Labour but more of their party votes to National, so the local candidate's own pull matters.
What it would take to change hands
National would need a swing of about 0.1 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 8.3 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Nelson candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Baillie | ACT New Zealand | #46 |
| Rachel Boyack Won here in 2023 MP for Nelson | Labour Party | #36 |
| Blair Cameron 2nd here in 2023 | National Party | #40 |
| Julian Crawford | New Zealand Loyal | #7 |
| Bruce Dyer | Progressive Party of Aotearoa New Zealand | – |
| Jodie Kuntzsch | Opportunity Party | #6 |
| Rohan O'Neill-Stevens | Green Party | #16 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.