Electorates › Napier
Napier
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 23.8 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Katie Nimon (National) won Napier by 8,909 votes over Mark Hutchinson (Labour). The candidate vote split National 53.5% to Labour 31.2%, a margin of 22.3 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Katie Nimon, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 41.0%, ahead of Labour on 26.6%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 23.8 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 11.9 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 15.6 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Napier candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Roy Peter Boonen | Green Party | #52 |
| Alex Hedley | Labour Party | #49 |
| Te Kira Lawrence | New Zealand First Party | #28 |
| Katie Nimon Won here in 2023 MP for Napier | National Party | #26 |
| John Ormond | ACT New Zealand | #40 |
| Graham Wainwright | Independent | – |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.