Electorates › Mt Roskill
Mt Roskill
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Fairly safe · 9.2 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Carlos Cheung (National) won Mt Roskill by 1,564 votes over Michael Philip Wood (Labour). The candidate vote split National 44.3% to Labour 39.9%, a margin of 4.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Carlos Cheung, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 43.4%, ahead of Labour on 30.0%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 9.2 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 4.6 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 1.0 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Mt Roskill candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Jamie Attenborough | Opportunity Party | #29 |
| Carlos Cheung Won here in 2023 MP for Mt Roskill | National Party | #33 |
| Priyanka Deo | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand | #6 |
| Anjana Iyer | Green Party | #38 |
| Yang Qu | ACT New Zealand | #17 |
| Michael Philip Wood 2nd here in 2023 | Labour Party | – |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.