Electorates › Mt Maunganui
Mt Maunganui
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 31.2 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Tom Rutherford (National) won Bay of Plenty by 15,405 votes over Pare Taikato (Labour). The seat was called Bay of Plenty before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split National 52.3% to Labour 17.7%, a margin of 34.6 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Tom Rutherford, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 47.2%, ahead of Labour on 17.4%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 31.2 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 15.6 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 23.0 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Mt Maunganui candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Tracey Coxhead | New Zealand First Party | #15 |
| Caitlin Grattan | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand | #9 |
| Rhieve Grey | Labour Party | #64 |
| Cameron Luxton List MP | ACT New Zealand | #12 |
| Tom Rutherford Won here in 2023 MP for Bay of Plenty | National Party | #27 |
| Pualele Joan Westhead | Green Party | #51 |
| Greer Young | New Zealand Loyal | #6 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.