Mt Albert

The 2023 result

In 2023, Helen White (Labour) won Mt Albert by 18 votes over Melissa Lee (National). The candidate vote split Labour 34.1% to National 34.1%, a margin of 0.0 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Helen White, is standing again.

On the party vote, National led with 32.1%, ahead of Labour on 26.1%. That's a split: voters gave the seat to Labour but more of their party votes to National, so the local candidate's own pull matters.

Worth knowing: 2023 was decided by 18 votes; notional Labour margin 3.7% after boundary change.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 3.7 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 1.9 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 11.9 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.