Electorates › Manurewa
Manurewa
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 24.4 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Arena Williams (Labour) won Manurewa by 7,113 votes over Siva Kilari (National). The candidate vote split Labour 58.1% to National 32.7%, a margin of 25.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Arena Williams, is standing again.
On the party vote, Labour led with 52.2%, ahead of National on 29.4%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 24.4 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 12.2 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 32.6 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Manurewa candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Ghouse Majeed | National Party | #65 |
| Avalua Tavui | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand | #7 |
| Esther Tofilau Tevaga | New Zealand First Party | #18 |
| Arena Williams Won here in 2023 MP for Manurewa | Labour Party | #40 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.