Electorates › Māngere
Māngere
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 40.7 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Lemauga Lydia Sosene (Labour) won Māngere by 11,712 votes over Rosemary Bourke (National). The candidate vote split Labour 61.3% to National 19.8%, a margin of 41.5 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Lemauga Lydia Sosene, is standing again.
On the party vote, Labour led with 61.4%, ahead of National on 19.3%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 40.7 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 20.4 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 48.9 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Māngere candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Hine Afeaki | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party | #4 |
| Kelvyn Alp | New Zealand Loyal | #1 |
| Rosemary Bourke 2nd here in 2023 | National Party | #39 |
| Vicky Hau | New Zealand First Party | #21 |
| Ben Lane | Opportunity Party | #25 |
| Michel Mulipola | Green Party | #49 |
| Manu Singh | ACT New Zealand | #26 |
| Lemauga Lydia Sosene Won here in 2023 MP for Māngere | Labour Party | #41 |
| Alani Fisher Taione | People's Party New Zealand | – |
| Timoti Te Moke | Independent | – |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.