Kenepuru

The 2023 result

In 2023, Barbara Edmonds (Labour) won Mana by 7,324 votes over Frances Hughes (National). The seat was called Mana before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split Labour 49.1% to National 31.3%, a margin of 17.8 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Barbara Edmonds, is standing again.

On the party vote, Labour led with 38.2%, ahead of National on 28.8%.

Worth knowing: Predecessor is a judgement call (Mana + Ōhāriu parts); notional Labour 16.3%.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 16.3 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 8.2 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 24.5 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.