Kapiti

The 2023 result

In 2023, Tim Costley (National) won Ōtaki by 6,271 votes over Terisa Ngobi (Labour). The seat was called Ōtaki before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split National 51.0% to Labour 36.5%, a margin of 14.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Tim Costley, is standing again.

On the party vote, National led with 37.3%, ahead of Labour on 31.0%.

Worth knowing: Predecessor is a judgement call (Ōtaki + Mana + Ōhāriu parts); notional National 9.0%.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 9.0 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 4.5 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 0.8 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.