Electorates › Kaipara ki Mahurangi
Kaipara ki Mahurangi
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 41.0 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Chris Penk (National) won Kaipara ki Mahurangi by 19,459 votes over Guy Wishart (Labour). The candidate vote split National 58.1% to Labour 18.1%, a margin of 40.0 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Chris Penk, is not standing in 2026, so this is an open seat.
On the party vote, National led with 47.8%, ahead of Labour on 17.0%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 41.0 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 20.5 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 32.8 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Kaipara ki Mahurangi candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Zephyr Brown | Green Party | #24 |
| Simon Court List MP | ACT New Zealand | #8 |
| Mark Dennis | Independent | – |
| Liz Dotcom | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party | #11 |
| Daniel Eb | Opportunity Party | #2 |
| Jenny Marcroft List MP | New Zealand First Party | #10 |
| Jessica Rowe | National Party | #68 |
| Jolyon Swinburn | Labour Party | – |
| Ivan Wagstaff | Independent | – |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.