Electorates › Kaikōura
Kaikōura
General electorate · Safe · 27.5 pts in 2023
Election day. While voting is open (until 7pm), this page shows only who's standing. Past results and everything else return when polls close at 7pm. Find your nearest voting place
The 2023 result
In 2023, Stuart Smith (National) won Kaikōura by 11,412 votes over Emma Dewhirst (Labour). The candidate vote split National 50.0% to Labour 22.5%, a margin of 27.5 points.
The 2023 winner, Stuart Smith, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 41.2%, ahead of Labour on 20.8%.
What it would take to change hands
Labour would need a swing of about 13.8 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 19.3 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Kaikōura candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Jamie Arbuckle List MP | New Zealand First Party | #13 |
| Iain Britton | Independent | – |
| Matt Flight | Labour Party | – |
| Oliver John Hill-Hughes | Independent | – |
| Ted Howard | Independent | – |
| Stuart Smith Won here in 2023 MP for Kaikōura | National Party | #21 |
| Tom Spooner | ACT New Zealand | #24 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.