Electorates › Invercargill
Invercargill
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 27.6 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Penny Simmonds (National) won Invercargill by 9,874 votes over Liz Craig (Labour). The candidate vote split National 56.4% to Labour 29.7%, a margin of 26.8 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Penny Simmonds, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 42.9%, ahead of Labour on 25.6%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 27.6 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 13.8 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 19.4 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Invercargill candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Anntwinette Grumball | Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party | #6 |
| Dave Kennedy | Green Party | #41 |
| Janice Lee | Labour Party | #61 |
| Hayden John Seager | Independent | – |
| Penny Simmonds Won here in 2023 MP for Invercargill | National Party | #14 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.