Electorates › Ilam
Ilam
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 19.7 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Hamish Campbell (National) won Ilam by 7,830 votes over Raf Manji (Opportunity). The candidate vote split National 44.4% to Opportunity 25.8%, a margin of 18.6 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Hamish Campbell, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 43.2%, ahead of Labour on 22.0%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 19.7 points ahead of Opportunity (an estimate by The Tally Room). Opportunity would need a swing of about 9.9 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Opportunity up 3.7 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 9.5 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Ilam candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Hamish Campbell Won here in 2023 MP for Ilam | National Party | #47 |
| Mike Davidson List MP | Green Party | #20 |
| Courtney Fraser | Alliance Party | #9 |
| Ken Harpur | ACT New Zealand | #44 |
| Rata Jamieson | Labour Party | #55 |
| Nathan Walton | New Zealand First Party | #49 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.