Electorates › Hamilton East
Hamilton East
General electorate · Safe · 13.7 pts in 2023
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Ryan Hamilton (National) won Hamilton East by 5,060 votes over Georgie Dansey (Labour). The candidate vote split National 48.4% to Labour 34.8%, a margin of 13.7 points.
The 2023 winner, Ryan Hamilton, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 42.9%, ahead of Labour on 24.9%.
What it would take to change hands
Labour would need a swing of about 6.9 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 5.5 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Hamilton East candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Georgie Dansey 2nd here in 2023 List MP | Labour Party | #32 |
| Jacobus Gielen | Independent | – |
| Ryan Hamilton Won here in 2023 MP for Hamilton East | National Party | #35 |
| Nicola Laboyrie | New Zealand First Party | #41 |
| Naomi Pocock | Opportunity Party | #15 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.