Glendene

General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Fairly safe · 7.5 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)

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The 2023 result

In 2023, Carmel Jean Sepuloni (Labour) won Kelston by 4,396 votes over Ruby Schaumkel (National). The seat was called Kelston before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split Labour 44.4% to National 30.9%, a margin of 13.6 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Carmel Jean Sepuloni, is standing again.

On the party vote, Labour led with 37.3%, ahead of National on 31.2%.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 7.5 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 3.8 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 15.7 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.

Glendene candidates 2026

Candidate	Party	List
Evan French	Opportunity Party	#28
Sunil Kumar	National Party	#62
Rob McNeil	Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand	#1
Alfred Ngaro	New Zealand First Party	#5
Amanda Roberts	ACT New Zealand	#19
Tua Schuster	Independent	–
Carmel Jean Sepuloni Won here in 2023 Sitting MP	Labour Party	#2
Yasmine Serhan	Green Party	#18

"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.

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