Electorates › Epsom
Epsom
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 16.9 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, David Seymour (ACT) won Epsom by 8,142 votes over Paul Goldsmith (National). The candidate vote split ACT 44.8% to National 24.3%, a margin of 20.5 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, David Seymour, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 51.7%, ahead of Labour on 14.7%. That's a split: voters gave the seat to ACT but more of their party votes to National, so the local candidate's own pull matters.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put ACT 16.9 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 8.5 points from ACT to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
This seat was won by a smaller party on its candidate's personal vote. National party-vote swings are a poor guide here, so the calculator keeps it with ACT unless you choose otherwise.
Epsom candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Camilla Belich List MP | Labour Party | #23 |
| Paul Goldsmith 2nd here in 2023 List MP | National Party | #6 |
| Martin Gummer | New Zealand First Party | #27 |
| Paul Jackson | Opportunity Party | #39 |
| Sawan Jerry | Vision New Zealand | #3 |
| David Seymour Won here in 2023 MP for Epsom | ACT New Zealand | #1 |
| Lawrence Xu-Nan List MP | Green Party | #8 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.