Electorates › East Coast Bays
East Coast Bays
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 53.1 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Erica Stanford (National) won East Coast Bays by 20,353 votes over Naisi Chen (Labour). The candidate vote split National 72.5% to Labour 19.2%, a margin of 53.3 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Erica Stanford, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 57.8%, ahead of Labour on 14.7%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 53.1 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 26.6 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 44.9 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
East Coast Bays candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Allan Lind | New Zealand Loyal | #12 |
| Brendan McEnroe | Labour Party | #68 |
| Abe McKee | Green Party | #35 |
| Samuel Mills | ACT New Zealand | #22 |
| Erica Stanford Won here in 2023 MP for East Coast Bays | National Party | #5 |
| Vaughan Taylor | New Zealand First Party | #42 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.