Electorates › East Cape
East Cape
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Fairly safe · 8.1 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
Election day. While voting is open (until 7pm), this page shows only who's standing. Past results and everything else return when polls close at 7pm. Find your nearest voting place
The 2023 result
In 2023, Dana Margot Kirkpatrick (National) won East Coast by 3,199 votes over Tamati Coffey (Labour). The seat was called East Coast before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split National 43.1% to Labour 35.0%, a margin of 8.1 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Dana Margot Kirkpatrick, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 36.9%, ahead of Labour on 30.0%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 8.1 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 4.1 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would take the seat by about 0.1 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
East Cape candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Gordon John Dickson | Independent | – |
| Darrin Hawkes | ACT New Zealand | #35 |
| Dana Margot Kirkpatrick Won here in 2023 Sitting MP | National Party | #32 |
| Jo Luxton 2nd in Rangitata in 2023 List MP | Labour Party | #17 |
| Cail Smith | Opportunity Party | #33 |
| Jordan Walker | Green Party | #45 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.