Electorates › Upper Harbour
Upper Harbour
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 37.0 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Cameron Brewer (National) won Upper Harbour by 11,192 votes over Vanushi Walters (Labour). The candidate vote split National 53.5% to Labour 25.6%, a margin of 27.9 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Cameron Brewer, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 50.2%, ahead of Labour on 22.6%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 37.0 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 18.5 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 28.8 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Upper Harbour candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Hannah Pia Baral | Labour Party | #44 |
| Cameron Brewer Won here in 2023 MP for Upper Harbour | National Party | #19 |
| Jonathon Griffiths | Independent | – |
| Panos Patros | ACT New Zealand | #36 |
| Ryan Richards | Green Party | #53 |
| Bernadette Soares | New Zealand First Party | #22 |
| Romeo Tevaga | Opportunity Party | #12 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.