Electorates › Tauranga
Tauranga
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Safe · 26.0 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Sam Uffindell (National) won Tauranga by 9,370 votes over Jan Tinetti (Labour). The candidate vote split National 46.4% to Labour 23.5%, a margin of 22.9 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Sam Uffindell, is standing again.
On the party vote, National led with 46.1%, ahead of Labour on 18.3%.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 26.0 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 13.0 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), National would hold it by about 17.8 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Tauranga candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | Opportunity Party | #22 |
| Sam Connely | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand | #10 |
| Tim Maltby | Independent | – |
| Bryan Norton | ACT New Zealand | #41 |
| Daniël Oosthuizen | Green Party | #40 |
| Jan Tinetti 2nd here in 2023 List MP | Labour Party | #15 |
| Sam Uffindell Won here in 2023 MP for Tauranga | National Party | #50 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.