Electorates › Christchurch Central
Christchurch Central
General electorate · boundaries changed in 2025 · Fairly safe · 7.5 pts on 2026 boundaries (est.)
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The 2023 result
In 2023, Duncan Webb (Labour) won Christchurch Central by 1,841 votes over Dale Aotea Stephens (National). The candidate vote split Labour 40.2% to National 35.4%, a margin of 4.8 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.
The 2023 winner, Duncan Webb, is not standing in 2026, so this is an open seat.
On the party vote, National led with 31.3%, ahead of Labour on 28.6%. That's a split: voters gave the seat to Labour but more of their party votes to National, so the local candidate's own pull matters.
What it would take to change hands
On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put Labour 7.5 points ahead of National (an estimate by The Tally Room). National would need a swing of about 3.8 points from Labour to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.
Since 2023, the current poll average has National down 10.0 points on the party vote and Labour up 1.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would hold it by about 15.7 points.
A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.
Christchurch Central candidates 2026
| Candidate | Party | List |
|---|---|---|
| Blair Anderson | Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party | #8 |
| Mark Russell Arneil | New Zealand First Party | #24 |
| Greg Byrnes | Alliance Party | #14 |
| Kahu Carter Sitting MP | Green Party | #11 |
| George Hampton 2nd in North Shore in 2023 | Labour Party | #51 |
| Tubby Hansen | Economic Euthenics | – |
| Hayden Laurie | Independent | – |
| Eden Skipper | Opportunity Party | #5 |
| Dale Aotea Stephens 2nd here in 2023 | National Party | #22 |
"List" is the candidate's place on their party's list, if they're also on it. Candidates as nominated with the Electoral Commission.