Henderson

The 2023 result

In 2023, Phil Twyford (Labour) won Te Atatū by 131 votes over Angee Nicholas (National). The seat was called Te Atatū before the 2025 boundary review. The candidate vote split Labour 39.4% to National 39.0%, a margin of 0.4 points. Its boundaries have changed for 2026, so the 2026 seat isn't exactly the same area that voted in 2023.

The 2023 winner, Phil Twyford, is standing again.

On the party vote, National led with 37.8%, ahead of Labour on 33.6%. That's a split: voters gave the seat to Labour but more of their party votes to National, so the local candidate's own pull matters.

Worth knowing: Notional flip Labour→National on redrawn boundaries; margin 2.4%.

What it would take to change hands

On the 2026 boundaries, the 2023 votes would put National 2.4 points ahead of Labour (an estimate by The Tally Room). Labour would need a swing of about 1.2 points from National to take it: each point that moves from one to the other closes the gap by two.

Since 2023, the current poll average has Labour up 1.0 points on the party vote and National down 10.0. If three-quarters of that change carried through to the candidate vote here (the calculator's default), Labour would take the seat by about 5.8 points.

A simple uniform-swing illustration, not a forecast: local candidates, tactical voting and the polls' margins of error all matter. About the poll average.